IJSRP, Volume 7, Issue 10, October 2017 Edition [ISSN 2250-3153]
Novri Rulyasri, Noer Azam Achsani, Heti Mulyati
The fluctuation of global economy condition in 2014 – 2015 will continuously change up to the end of 2016 and it makes uncertainty for players in industrial sectors of developing countries, including Indonesia. The changing of macroeconomicfactors like Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that is represented by Industrial Production Index (IPX), Currency Exchange Rate, BI rate, Consumer Price Index (CPI), and The Total of Money Circulation (M2) that happens in that period of time which also influences the banking industrial sector in Indonesia.Loan provision for Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which is generally known by retail segment, is facing a deceleration causing Non Performing Loan (NPL) on that segment.By using times series data on the macroeconomy variables and then it is conducted and analyzed by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) can be obtained that the NPL level in retail segment is influenced from the changing factors or macroeconomy variables. In short time, the varibale of money circulation (M2) will be a macroeconomy variable that has positive and significant impact towards NPL in retail segment, meanwhile in long term, currency exchange rate variable and the total money circulation (M2) will be macroeconomy variables that have positive impacts towards the NPL in retail segment.