IJSRP, Volume 4, Issue 7, July 2014 Edition [ISSN 2250-3153]
J. Masanganise, T.W. Mapuwei, M. Magodora, C. Shonhiwa
A subset of global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 was used to explore the changes in temperature and rainfall under moderate and high climate change scenarios. We used downscaled model projections of daily minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall for the period 2040-2070 relative to the 1980-2010 reference period. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to test (at 5 % level of significance) for differences among the three selected models in predicting the three variables under both climate change scenarios. Where significant differences were observed, we carried out multiple pair-wise comparison of the models using Dunnett’s test. Overall, two of the three models showed insignificant differences (p˂0.05) in predicting minimum and maximum temperature while the other model deviated from the two. However, we identified a consistent warming trend across all the three models. The strength of global climate models in rainfall prediction was found to lie in their ability to simulate extremes, making the models relevant to sectors of the economy that are vulnerable to extreme rainfall such as drought and floods.