International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications

Home
About Us
Editorial Board

Online Publication

Log In
New User?
       Register Now!
Forgot Password?
       Email Password!


Call For Papers

Call for Research Paper

Authors

Online Submission
Paper Submission Guidelines
Online Publication Charge
Print Publication Charge
How to publish research paper
Publication Certificate
Research Catalogue
Resources
FAQs

Reviewer

Join Reviewer Panel
Reviewer Guidelines

IJSRP Publications

E-Journal
Print Journal

Downloads

IJSRP Paper Format
Instructions

Contact Us

Feedback Form
Contact Us
Site Map

IJSRP, Volume 9, Issue 7, July 2019 Edition [ISSN 2250-3153]



      Md. Nazmul Ahasan, Md. Abdul Khalek and Md. Mesbahul Alam

Abstract: Modeling and forecasts of global oceanographic index has important implications for decision making. An effective management on climate anomalies impact depends on the performance towards better accuracy and forecasts. In this paper, an algorithm which makes use of wavelets together with a time series model, GARCH is implemented in order to improve the performance of forecasts in global climate data series. Multivariate ENSO index, MEI, for the period January, 1950 to February, 2018 is used to compare the GARCH model and a newly proposed tools with W-GARCH(1, 1) model. The goodness of performance is calculated via the Akaike information criterion, Schwarz criterion, Hannan-Quinn criterion and RMSE. The results showed that although both models fit the MEI data well, the forecast produced by the GARCH(1, 2) model underestimates the observed score while the newly proposed W-GARCH(1, 1) model generates a better accuracy of forecasts for the given data. Hence the proposed W-GARCH(1, 1) should be applied for forecasts in the fields reflected by MEI variability.

[Reference this Paper]   [BACK]

Ooops! It appears you don't have a PDF plugin for this barrPostingser. you can click here to download the PDF file.

Reference this Research Paper (copy & paste below code):

Md. Nazmul Ahasan, Md. Abdul Khalek and Md. Mesbahul Alam (2019); Modeling via Wavelet GARCH Algorithm on Multivariate ENSO Index; International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications (IJSRP) 9(7) (ISSN: 2250-3153), DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.29322/IJSRP.9.07.2019.p9195

IJSRP PUBLICATIONS

Home

About Us
Editorial Board
Call for Paper

Call for Research Paper
Paper Status
IJSRP Paper Format
Join Us

Download e-journal
Join Forum
Invite Friends
Subscribe
Get Social with Us!



Copyright © 2011-2016, IJSRP Inc., All rights reserved.