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IJSRP, Volume 9, Issue 1, January 2019 Edition [ISSN 2250-3153]



      Ashish Tekwani and Kartik Tripathi

Abstract: This paper is directed towards a study into what factors affect the movements in the exchange value of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar and use those factors to predict the future value of the same. A key determinant in international finance is foreign exchange rate and today’s hyper connected world has just made this variable all the more important. There are various factors in a macro-economic environment which affect the demand and supply of a currency and in return affect the exchange rate. This paper has considered data of 6 variables viz. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Call money rate, Foreign Exchange reserves (FOREX), Current Account Deficit(CAD), Brent Crude oil price and Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) for research purposes. a period of 58 quarters i.e. from 2004-2018. The study was done to make an attempt to formulate and establish a relationship between exchange rate and its variables and use predictive modelling to forecast the most accurate value of exchange rate in future.

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Ashish Tekwani and Kartik Tripathi (2019); USD/INR Future Price Predictive Modelling Considering Macro Economic Factors; International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications (IJSRP) 9(1) (ISSN: 2250-3153), DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.29322/IJSRP.9.01.2019.p8581

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