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Title: Social and Economic deconstruction of the El Nino phenomenon in Lambayeque: a case study in Peru

Daniel Enrique Rios-Serrano


This case study was based in analysis and projection approach contained in the Social and Economic deconstruction of the El Nino phenomenon in Lambayeque: a case study in Peru is integral to understand the periodicity and impact of business cycles during El Nino phenomenon of 1972-1973, 1997-1998 and 2017.

The survey of statistics was considering across several time-series in the research made with official data of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) , National Emergency Operation Center, Ministry of Education (MINEDU), National Institute of Civil Defense (INDECI), National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru (SENHAMI) , Development Bank Of Latin America (CAF), Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) , National Institute of Statistics and informatics (INEI) and Ministry of Housing, Construction and Sanitation.

The analysis in this paper was carried out by a database study, coordination with government authorities in the Lambayeque region as well as in Lima. The approaches, in addition to a quantitative analysis, use the interdisciplinarity of historiography to order the events in a timeline from 1982-83, 1997-98 and the Nino Costero during summer of 2017.

Moreover, the complementary bibliography is based on Paul Cashin, Claude Collin, David Cook, Ignacio Alva-Meneses, Walter Alva, Gerrit Backus, Jean Bruhnes, Santiago Uceda, Luis Jaime Castillo, Giancarlo Chang, Tom Dillenhay, Jack Rossen, Carlos Elera, Ysaac Galan, Cesar Galvez, Alejandro Garland, Lorenzo Huertas, Luis Jacome, Pablo Macera, Jorge Basadre, Eddy Montoya, Michael Moseley, Eric Mendoza, Arturo Rocha, Carlos Vergara, Julio Osores, Guido Pennano, Izumi Shimada, Ken Takashi, Joanna Kamiche, Elsa Galarza, Miguel Diaz, Pedro Alva, David Ayasta, Enrique Bruning, Antonio Brack.

The analysis has benefited from comments and suggestions by staff members from the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru (PUCP) Department of Economics , as well as by Professor Carlos Contreras following his discussion of the report on December 12, 2018. However, both analyses about the impact of business cycles and the developed concept of periodicity are consideration of my own property.

Finally, thank you to all who have listened to me talk about nothing else other than writing this paper and gave me support during this phase of my life, but most importantly during the whole process.

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